Q4 2022 promises to be an exceptional time for the media industry, witnessing a unique coming together of economic consumer challenges, media high demand, and a World Cup, that will likely generate a perfect storm a time when OOH revenues are traditionally at their peak.

The media industry is recovering from the pandemic and instilling a new dynamic that is blurring traditional lines of audience reach and behaviour. TV inflation is set to reach 19% in Q4, with advertisers set to pay up to 50% more than pre-pandemic rates to try to land messaging in a super-busy environment. The “twin trend of declining linear television viewership and rising TV media costs is encouraging advertisers to look elsewhere for incremental reach” – WARC’s description – and creates real opportunity for the flexible reality of digital OOH.

All this comes at a time when streaming cancellations, younger audiences increasingly bemused by linear TV and a winter World Cup promise to play havoc with brand campaigns across the quarter – especially those yet to be laid down.

Cinema’s well documented travails – the biggest month of 2022 for audiences still lagged behind 2019 levels – again leaves AV channels that can deliver sizeable and consistent broadcast audiences well placed to capitalise and cut through to audiences faced with economic decisions of their own.

Traditional planning convention will not necessarily hold sway in such conditions. Digital OOH is set to play a major role in branding this winter, but a number of factors are disrupting this channel too, all at a time when Route audience measurement is not reflecting reality and the new post-pandemic dynamic. Working from home is having a significant impact on city centre and transport audiences; latest stats suggest workers across the UK are still only going into offices 1-2 days a week on average. The flattening of the leisure/commuter audience is another primary consideration for planners and one that’s taking hold nationally to even greater effect. Transport strikes, growing WFH preferences and economic uncertainty mean applying more flexibility to the media and OOH planning process is critical in order to find and deliver relevant audiences as brands bet heavily on advertising through tougher economic times and every media impact counts.

The timing of the current economic situation will fundamentally reshape people’s association with brands and advertising – a true post-pandemic sea change that is worth greater investigation. First and foremost, customers expect to hear from brands through economic hardship, genuinely looking for authentic and contextual communication, extending to seeking credible media partners (according to recent research from Reach Solutions). Meanwhile, major brands like John Lewis are seeking to resist austerity and seize on our desire for personal treats (“dopamine dressing”) in the moments that matter, if the price and context is right.

The events shaping Q4 are truly unique, with the World Cup threatening to unsettle the whole marketing and economic eco-system. Not merely the tournament’s interference with Christmas consumerism, but the games kicking off in the Middle East between 10am-7pm GMT present opportunity to engage with audiences in the moment, including at MSAs where a younger and male sports mad audience will continue to pass through, in excess of pre-pandemic levels.

Other significant events coming up include October Half Term – a key moment for reaching families where we can expect uplifts of +11% relative to the quarter – and Christmas – a key moment for family travel with audiences staggering their seasonal getaway across 2-3 weeks from Monday 19^th December. In addition, a tranche of events and occasions including the England-hosted Rugby League World Cup, Black Friday/Cyber Monday, Halloween and Remembrance Day, offer the opportunity for brands to increase their contextual relationship with audiences, dynamically and in real time.

At MSAs, we will have installed 500 digital screens by year end, reaching a national audience with unmissable, flexible full motion content on D6s and D48s. The challenge for all planners is to reach attractive audiences across the media spectrum, but particularly where they spend their moments throughout the week. And where – post-pandemic – audiences are proven to be in growth, consistent and attentive, a particularly tough challenge for all in this unique period now underway.